Predicting 2023 – Techstrong Research Review EP 11

here Hey everybody. Oh God New Year. My goodness 2023 first text wrong research review of 2023.

I'm Mike Rothman. GM of tech strong research. She's trying to answer of text wrong Group Mitchell.

Actually CTO principal working with Mike on Research. Who are you what I mean? What Mitch?

Who's that? All right, I'm stomach out to hang down. That's right.

That's right. Which classes he belong to I don't know but he's been here eight years. He's been here for a while.

We're not quite sure what he does. But he's just kind of here and around here. Now, we all know what Mitch does he keeps, you know, kind of everything stitched together and keeps me honest and helps out with all sorts of stuff.

So happy New Year my friend, you know, it was nice to have a couple of weeks off. We we have recorded since I think mid December. Um, so it was nice.

You have good holiday. Everything was good on that front we did and we'll talk about Southwest Airlines, but maybe yeah, we did technical that let's just say technical that, you know came back and And hit them in the head outside. It's technical karma is what it is.

Yeah, maybe that's anyway on the other topic and that it is so, you know, I think for our first Review of the year we kind of wanted to go into one a little reminder that predict is this Thursday. So Mitch and I have been just again in the coal mine. Not really, you know kind of seeing much about what's going on out there really focused on you know, kind of documenting the trends that we think are gonna happen in 2023.

Um really things that you need to think about and watch out for an hour clear for areas of coverage devops obviously devops right Cloud native security and digital transformation. We've got great panels. We've got, you know kind of a number of of different, you know, kind of research initiatives.

We'll be talking about you again relative to to our friends. So it's very exciting and it really sets us up for the rest of 2023 from a research agenda standpoint. So it's been a ton of work, but we're certainly very excited about predict this week.

So come sign up register. You know come say hello. And you know, if you do miss it live our all the sessions will be up on the on the website, um events rooms where you can find it out and get sex wrong events.

Exactly. So I guess what we think about 2023 Mitch. I mean, you know, let's kind of go into what Gonna be different right?

What's gonna be the same, you know, is it more of the same crap we've been dealing with is something fundamentally different. Are we gonna see, you know, some new technology that's gonna totally change and impact everything that we do right or is it gonna again gonna be kind of run rate? You know, let's get through the day still grappling with this remote work thing and you know trying to get kind of make progress on our initiatives that you know, kind of got started last year.

You know it I mean so past we could go down and one I wanted to mention is I'm hearing this term silent hiring, you know, we've heard retiring in place or you know quitting in place that yeah. Now there's this term maybe HR folks just need new terms, you know, they were cool too. But anyway, it's it's not hiring people every time for a role that you need.

It's repurposing or giving people an opportunity to move into other areas with existing staff or might be contracting Consulting that kind of thing which is not unusual for downturn. Right if you're not gonna hire you still got to get stuff done and you probably don't have every talent that you need on staff and so give people an opportunity. So you think about downturns, you know, folks are always concerned about jobs and things like that, but there is opportunities as well.

And if you in a losing a job, you've always can go into Contracting Consulting and feeling gaps and while you're looking for the next position or be proactive and say I know we have a need in this area. I know Interested in AI I actually been studying it or whatever. I'd like to help out whatever you can do to kind of Step Up and I think that's a good thing to do during tough times is we all need people to step up all the time.

But especially when we're being challenged. Yeah that that's right and let's kind of dig in on the whole tough times thing a little bit because you know, okay, is it gonna be a soft Landing? Is it gonna be you know, a full-on recession is it gonna be I mean, you know, there are a lot of different ways to you know, kind of analyze this but what's interesting is again, I've been insecurity for a long time, right?

So so I've been through a number of these different Cycles looking at it specifically from a security standpoint and it always seemed that when Security started to slow down we were, you know close if not the bottom of the typical business cycle, right because security is viewed as something that's very very critical, you know can back off those Investments bad things happen when you know, you don't continue. To you know, invest in in the security environment and security infrastructure. And then it tends to be one of the earlier Technologies to recover right once we kind of get out of that trough and start to head back up the the business cycle security tends to be one of the earliest ones that they were covered.

Well, we have started to seeing that slowdown in security, right? So that is heartening from the standpoint that says we're probably closer to the end of this downturn then to the beginning but that being said it also means that at the trough, you know, folks again all bets are off, right, you know, so so what happened from a budget standpoint maybe folks continue to invest we'll see right. We'll see if that stuff happens and our projects got pushed out at the end of the year.

We'll see those come back on to you know, kind of the agenda for q1 or even into into cute too. But from a planning perspective, I can't we've still got to focus on the business outcomes, right? What are we trying to do with this?

Technology, so it's not a lot of just technology for technology sake it really is about let's kind of get when we're fighting for scarce resources. We have to be able to make that business case for why this investment is important in again. Just poking fun a little bit.

I don't know that Southwest Airlines is gonna have a lot of problem getting some investment to update those systems that have been largely the same for the last 20 years, right, you know, so they're going to invest because they have to right they're technical debt got to be overwhelming from that perspective, but other things that aren't as obvious again, I think we're gonna have to get better and sharpen our Tools in terms of you know, kind of how do we present that case to the business folks to get the resources. We need to execute on the projects that will impact business. Well, if you need a step into a new industry doing a business case analysis on Southwest Airlines is what every MBA student will be doing for the next the answer.

But anyway, that's all total total Fiasco. But you know now withstanding, you know you and I've been through downturns before and also been in startups during downturns, but sometimes it's kind of The Crucible if you improve the model by now and you've been going at it, it's been a lot of money. Yes, you might get shut down and you might get you know, significantly trimmed down but it's it's also, you know things have changed whenever they kind of lock up and you've got to tighten up and focus on some certain things.

People also when they look to recover, it's a good time to say well how we want to do this differently. Oh well. Hey Mitch and Mike and their startup company have done something interesting.

Now, it's time to take advantage of that. So in that upswing is often an opportunity for entrepreneurs to you know, to step into the market or have something to step in the market with so they're awesome investing in R&D and developing product or maybe getting with customers even though they may not buying at the moment. Now I I think that's right and and let's kind of relate that back to the reality of what folks have to do in our space.

It's right. So again, we kind of came up and we're doing predict this year. We're gonna see, you know, a bunch of Trends documents that are coming out of text growing research and let's just hit pretty quickly each of the four topics and really relate to how our main theme, you know kind of starts to be colored or you know kind of impacted by, you know, kind of the economic environment, right?

So if we start with devops, right our main theme is Long live devops, right? Because that's this whole idea that well devops is dead, you know, people aren't doing that props anymore SRE is shining and sexy and platform engineering is gonna replace it. And the reality is none of those are really the case what we're talking about is devops as a framework right as a process as a mechanism to build the wrong, you know, kind of Raw materials which is really just intellectual property this point into business value, right?

We're going to do that through some type of devops Pipeline and that's not going to change regardless of whether we're investing whether we're Contracting whether we're revisiting different projects Innovation is driven in a devops mindset now, so I don't really see a lot of you know impact to you know, kind of the framework impact to the mentality how quickly can we get there, right that may change a little bit but you know, I mean for the most part I do think that you know, kind of devops is front center whether you want to call it that or play around with the words. I think that remains front and center regardless of you know, kind of the economic cycle. It it's something that I say often, which is devops is not a technology.

It's how you create software. It's it's approach this culture that mentality and I think devopsis proven its resilience in how it's expanded by itself others have adopted principles and concepts of devops and AI Ops data Ops Master cops, right and doing next week, which I'm actually fine with because that says people find something of value that they apply in their domain. So, you know, I think devops is dead is clickbait and that's kind of if you truly believe that I think you don't know what to have oxid really is you're stuck on the technology standpoint, but I think the other part of it is what devops is now is not what it's gonna be a year or two or four down the road, right?

It will continue to evolve just as technology will push it organizations adopting pushing it other factors. Will it be around with us forever? Well, we still have a model at the application.

So yes, it'll be with us forever, but it will evolvement change. It may be something else will step in and be kind of the next. Next kind of plateau of where we go with it.

It'll be a stepping stone not to whatever that is. Yeah, that's right. And and you know now we've kind of think a little bit about Cloud native, right?

So Cloud native theme is the Long March and this is this idea of really cloud-native Technologies Cloud native projects starting to become the underlying foundation for again, a lot of the technology, you know, kind of infrastructure that that we're moving forward and building a lot of this modern environment modern development on top of it doesn't happen quickly, right? We're talking, you know, a Long March. It's something that took decades, you know, for other major kind of Technology waves, whether it's client server or you know the lamp stack or or what have you it didn't happen overnight.

So Cloud native is not gonna happen overnight regardless of the fact that we spend most of our time in Cloud native land. So we may get a little bit of a color view from that perspective but in this downturn, right Time where we're constrained if anything that buys us a little bit more time right to really refine the Technologies part of what we're talking about is the Enterprise capabilities around things like kubernetes starting to become more mature, right so that we can start to you know, say we can support Mission critical workloads, you know kind of In This Cloud native environment and I think if anything taking, you know kind of the foot off the gas gives us time to digest a lot of this new technology that we've kind of thrown into the mix over the last couple of years. The great thing about it too.

Mike is it isn't just dependent upon buying products. Yes, there's technology that we are by from our suppliers, but you know kubernetes is open source open Telemetry for observability and and tracing distributed tracing, you know, micro Services as a design concept. It's not a product.

There's a you know, there's open source or service mesh so you can apply some of these You start to use it if we're taken to the next level in part through open source. It's a great. Initiated a way to initiate it if you haven't already and really learn from it because it's sort of like in Driving School in if you're a race car driver, you don't take this track at full speed when you're first time you go out right what you know the track in your mind, you know the effects of every curve and you know how to take it.

Well, you don't get there day one that one and that's what some of this time can afford you just to learn it. Yeah. Now for security our theme is security is job one, right?

And again, I think and we're gonna give it a Technologies and the management, you know, we're gonna go through that, you know kind of both that predict as well as you know, kind of as we move forward into q1 Q2 and and the rest of the year, right, but the real idea here is it's not even a technology that we're thinking about with this right? It's not a new innovation. It's not it's the mindset right that security is critical that everybody has to think about it that it needs to be baked into Lot of what we're doing from a devops standpoint from a cloud native standpoint is we think about digital transformation, which we'll get to right?

We have to really start to consider it again kind of how do we ensure that a mindset of protection starts to permeate through everything that we're doing and again, I don't think that's related to the downturn. If anything it gives us time to revisit a lot of those motions revisit a lot of those philosophies policies Etc. And and really again give us time to ingest and integrate a lot of what it is that we've been trying to protect over the last couple years.

And I think it security has had the fortunate event of expanding into more than just traditional Network protocol protecting devices security. It's gotten into application security has gotten deeper into Cloud security. It's got into apis that is moving to areas.

We haven't been in heavily before and now we were at the table in 2022 or getting ourselves there and I think that's take the time to take advantage of that and continue to to continue that motion going that direction and expanding what you're group does through your collaboration with other teams as well as your own Knowledge and Skills. So it's you know, we talked about more of the same but it's more the same with more Breath Right and it is everything is security and everything's about everything. That's right.

It's got think about that technicals of security really starting to you know, kind of become more in mesh with you know, everything that we're doing and finally A digital transformation, you know last but certainly not least. I think this is the one where we do see Significant impact from the fact that investment is going to decrease rights again, and the reality is due to the pandemic due to you know, kind of the Advent of remote work. We've done years of digital transformation in a very short amount of time.

Right? So our theme is day two is now so day one, you know that initial wave of transformation has happened right now. Where do we go now?

What do we do? And the reality is again? I think that you know kind of a lot of new projects there is any very clear business value outcome driver, right?

Not new Revenue not new, you know kind of opportunities, but you know really a way to streamline the existing business because that's what folks you're gonna be thinking about in the first half of 2023, right? How do we improve our operations? How do we make our environment more efficient the digital transformation initiative kind of contributes to that?

Great, right Full Speed Ahead on those kind of things. But if it's opening up new areas of Revenue if it's trying to gain competitive Advantage if it's rolling out, you know, totally new product lines. In a time where we just don't know when things are really going to recover we obviously have much more significant Capital requirements and issues for companies that are that are you know, just operating today.

I just don't think that it's safe to assume that we're gonna have the same level of investment. So I think that digital transformation is really about completing the swing on a lot of the initiatives that were already in flight and making sure that again you're thinking about where to go when stuff starts to warm up but don't get kind of attached to you know, initiating those projects maybe anytime in 2020. I think we maybe having a different conversation early in 2024, but that's kind of what we see for 2023 who goes back to our thing for the whole conference is about standing delivery.

And that's you take those other three areas and put it in context of digital transformation. We're not in the crazy days of a domain name Will fund your startup right or or Idea will fund your digital transformation project. Maybe more exactly that crazy.

But now it's it's it's time to take those other things and deliver and and use what we know continue to learn what we need to learn by applying it to do that. But we want it we need outcomes. We need results, you know, it isn't just let's flip to Cloud native because that's the next cool thing is why where and what pieces of it?

It doesn't have to be it isn't it all or nothing transition? Same thing for devops. It isn't just let's you know, throw it open everybody now do devops and thou shall do it.

Now that's been really smart. Let's create centers Excellence for for cloud native Etc. So it's I think you say you just all time like about you know, it's about the business.

It's about the business outcomes and we have to keep that in mind that the technology is here to serve that purpose and if it doesn't have customer positive impact, it doesn't have a revenue cost savings. It's hard to justify everything on cost savings. So you need some things that are going to prepare.

forward and I think you know kind of going back to the Southwest example, I two things I want to say about it. Yes, it was technology failure and underinvestment in systems for their scheduling for their baggage systems and all that. Yeah, but it also pointed out.

a couple things one some complexities about their business model and how they And not do hubs or whatever, but it also pointed out that. At a certain scale of either volume or chaos or both. You can't throw people at it and that had been there.

Must not Grande when things went, you know hell in a hand basket. Let's just all getting conference room simple manually schedule all this stuff. It was beyond when any of it could do and so everything fell apart.

so it's a good time to say what are those failure points for us and let's pick steps right to fix it all but what things do we need to shore up? So we may be make the wrong product launch choice not a pivot to be competitive fast that's retracted move forward. That's right.

So again, when we have to tighten our belt we have to become more agile. We have to focus on the stuff that aren't necessarily. Dependent on funding right?

So there's again there's a lot of work we can do education culture philosophy. To move forward with certainly Frameworks, like devops certainly, you know kind of the impact of security and you know, the security and protection mindset Cloud native again, it gives us an opportunity to really digest a lot of this new technology let the the tools cook a little bit mature a little bit so that we can really start rolling out Enterprise class Mission critical workload. In you know, again the short term future, right, you know, two three four quarters will think we're gonna start to see rapid Evolution on that front and for digital transformation again, really focus on you know, kind of the stuff that is going to drive business value in the short term and don't get attached to, you know, a lot of these new innovation types of projects because again, I just think those initiatives are gonna be pulled back on this year.

So that's what we're thinking right for 2023. You'll get that and a whole mess more at predict on Thursday. So make sure you log in and and come, you know, listen to what it is that we have to say and then check out our friends research.

So they'll be published up on on the side. I know we'll be doing some, you know work on each of our editorial sites to start to introduce those Concepts, but our whole model is built on feedback. So if you think we're full of crap, please tell us Right, if you don't think we're right or you have a different take on stuff.

We really want to hear that. So keep the feedback flowing come and and check out predict. And again, I'm excited for 2023.

I think, you know, it's gonna be bumpy but in that bumpiness comes opportunity and I think there's gonna be a ton of opportunity for folks that again specialize in devops cybersecurity Cloud native infrastructure and digital transformation, which is Our wheelhouse. All right Mitch any other parting thoughts before we sign off for this episode. One thing I want to say about predict is is we we live by what you just said, which is feedback.

And bestest you tell us where we're full of. You know, what and we do that to predict. It's not just you and I identificating.

I think this for a whole, you know morning and afternoon, it is our us discussing what our we see the trends are what's happening in those four areas, but then we have people who are probably unrelated to us. We have panels for each one of those topics actually several panels, but we test this series they're gonna say I agree or I think you're full of baloney. Here's why and we're gonna just debate it.

So you'll get more than just our Viewpoint. You will get a collection of thought leaders from around the industry practitioners technology providers. And that's to me, you know as a CTO or CIO.

That's what I need. I need I need to get some perspective on this and I don't want just one one or two people. want to understand what people are thinking are trying to apply this to so that is some of the value you'll get out of predict and and our work because we'll and our work that's All right.

Thanks everybody. We will see you next week with our next episode of tech strong research review and until then we will see you at predict. And if not, we will see you next week in the review.

Take you.